The only thing that's going to drive the share price is exponential organic user growth. As of now we're not seeing any significant sign of that. It's basically growing at a linear pace. Even when they hit their target of 11,500 the stock still went down. Seems like it's stalling at about 150-200 users per day. Seems alot but that's only 50-70k users per year, which for this type of software isn't alot. This growth is coming off recent channel partner rollouts so unless they sign up alot more then it's going to be a struggle to hold this level of growth. Also the churn rate/user retention numbers will start to make an impact as numbers build and time goes on.
My guess is that the NZ bank is "Heartland Bank" as Paul Psaila was at a meeting there last month (see memo below). It would make sense as it's not one of the 4 main banks in NZ (which are all Aussie owned). It's a smaller more rural bank so makes sense to use it as a test market.
Memo here
https://shareholders.heartland.co.n...ase_its-time-to-make-fintech-your-new-bff.pdf
There's not alot of support on this stock, if 12.5 goes it could go sub 10. It's likely to drop further when tranche 2 of the CR comes on market and there will be even more selling pressure. Any sniff of a slow down and the stock will get punished. Even making guidance the stock does nothing but go down. It's just such an uphill battle with this stock and even if they achieve user numbers they still have to monetise it.
If this is going to be successful it's going to be because of 'word of mouth'. The time to get in is when you start hearing people talk about this stock at the local coffee shop.
