The following is all in my opinion:
The Indian mining law is comprehensive and black and white.
The Modi Goverment is backing FDI and will not allow illegality and scheming of Vedanta to taint the image of India anymore.
Remember, the first commitment of Modi is to increase the ease of doing business ranking in India
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First we must analyse IRL's right to the area, as is now confirmed by the RP and the recent administrative approval for the Mining lease
Second we must confirm Vedanta/HZL has definitivley lost its right to the mining lease
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http://www.mines.nic.in/writereaddata/UploadFile/NOTICEinvitingcomments.pdf
The Ministry of Mines has prepared the draft rules named “The Minerals (Other than Atomic and Hydro Carbons Energy Minerals) Concession Rules, 2015” for the provisions relating to grant and regulation of mineral concessions under the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957.
1. IRL's right to the ML
>>IRL's rights are crystallised and enforceable under Indian law. They have the granted RP and now administrative approval for the ML. Vedanta have nothing but straws now.
Rights of the holder of a reconnaissance permit granted prior to January 12, 2015.-
(1) A holder of a reconnaissance permit which was granted prior to January 12, 2015 may, upon fulfilment of the applicable conditions specified in sub-clause (i) through (iv) of clause (b) of sub-section (2) of section 10A, make an application to the State Government for grant of a prospecting licence in the format specified in Schedule I, within a period of three months after the expiry of the reconnaissance permit, or within such further period not exceeding six months as may be extended by the State Government pursuant to sub-rule (3). The State Government shall send an acknowledgement of receipt of the application submitted under sub-rule (1) to the applicant in the format specified in Schedule II, within a period of three days of receipt thereof: Provided that the holder of such reconnaissance permit who has already made an application to the State Government for grant of a prospecting licence before the commencement of these rules shall not be required to submit a fresh application and his
2. Vedanta/Hindustan Zinc lapse of the mining lease
CHAPTER VII: LAPSE, SURRENDER OR TERMINATION
Lapsing of the mining lease.- (1) Subject to the conditions of this rule where mining operations are not commenced within a period of two years from the date of execution of the mining lease, or is discontinued for a continuous period of two years after commencement of such operations, the mining lease shall lapse.
(2) The lapsing of a mining lease shall be recorded through an order issued by the State Government and shall also be communicated to the lessee.
(3) ... Where a lessee is unable to commence the mining operations ... he may submit an application to the State Page 29 of 89 Government, explaining the reasons for the same, before the expiry of such period
...
(6) The State Government shall, after examining the adequacy and genuineness of the reasons for the non-commencement of mining operations ... pass an order, within a period of three months ... either granting or rejecting such request ...
>> Conclusion: From this - we can see that Vedanta/HZL does not seem to have a cause of action and should not be able to obtain Aravalli if the law is applied.
One thing to Note:
36. Orders on revision application:-
(1) On receipt of an application for revision under rule
35, copies thereof shall be sent to the State Government or other authority and to all the
impleaded parties calling upon them to make such comments as they may like to make
within three months from the date of issue of the communication, and the State
Government or other authority and the impleaded parties, while furnishing comments to
the Central Government shall simultaneously endorse a copy of the comments to the
other parties.
(2) Comments received from any party under sub-rule (1) shall be sent to the other
parties for making such further comments as they may like to make within one month
from the date of issue of the communication and the parties making further comments
Page 36 of 89 shall send them to all the other parties.
(3) The revision application, the communications containing comments and countercomments
referred to in sub-rule (1) and (2) shall constitute the records of the case.
(4) After considering the records referred to in sub-rule (3), the Central Government
may confirm, modify or set aside the order or pass such other order in relation thereto as
the Central Government may deem just and proper.
(5) The Central Government may for sufficient cause, pending the final disposal of
an application for revision, stay the execution of the order against which any revision
application has been made
>> I think, rather importantly, the Central Government has NOT stayed the execution of the Rajasthan Goverments order (i.e. ML approval to IRL) which is a good initial sign in favour of IRL
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