This is relevant I reckon. It's from *, today.
The info probably supports selling, as opposed to trying to develop.
'As any industry veteran knows, mining is cyclical.
What followed Australia’s most recent boom wasn’t so much a bust but more of a consolidation, as the big miners tightened their operations and focused on costs. At the same time, it became a bit more difficult for smaller players to get projects off the ground.
The problem appears to have become more acute in the last 18-24 months, reflected in a lack of risk appetite from traditional funding sources (namely, equity markets) — particularly for projects that are still in the exploration phase.
Just yesterday, Manganese miner Rolek Resources gave up on its plans for a backdoor-listing on the ASX, citing a lack of interest among equity investors for junior miners.
In response, an increasing number of industry players are discussing alternative sources of financing. It’s currently a topical theme in the sector, with a panel at the Melbourne Mining Club scheduled to discuss the future of mining funding in early May.
For starters, where are the instos?
Hedley Widdup, executive director at fund manager Lion Selection Group, says he’s noted a broader change in the allocation of mining capital by large fund managers, towards more of a short-term view.
“I don’t know if there has been a complete shift of landscape for institutional money — it could be cyclical or more permanent — but I certainly don’t see nearly as many long term and patient investors as there used to be supporting companies wanting to develop new mining projects,” he told *.
“It’s quite possible that as the cycle moves on, more institutions will be investing in the mining space and presumably some money will trickle down into the riskier development space.”
“But I’m not sure that money will be long term, so it’s questionable how beneficial that will be for developers – they might get the money to start with but could be vulnerable after that if their share price weakens.”
The four-letter word
For Graeme Testar, director at Perth-based corporate advisory firm PCF Capital, the financing struggles of junior miners have derived mainly from changes in the risk metrics for debt funding.
“Ultimately, there’s not a lack of capital in the sector. In fact, to borrow a phrase there’s enough debt to choke a horse,” he told *.
The problem now is how to make that funding fit within a more conservative financing structure.
“It’s not a lack of capital, but the cost of capital. So previously, say the capital structure was 70/30 debt-to-equity or 60/40, that ratio’s come back to 50/50,” Testar said.
“Lenders are demanding an extra 50-100 basis points to satisfy the cost of that capital. Now an extra one per cent for debt funding shouldn’t shouldn’t see a project fall over, but it makes it difficult when you consider balancing the equity side to fit the new structure.”
Competition for early-stage equity funding is also heating up, with the rise of the cannabis sector and cryptocurrency. Following a recent trip to Canada, Testar noted that crypto has come off sharply but cannabis “definitely has not”.
The net result is that there’s increased competition for equity capital, at the same time as equity markets are being forced to pick up the slack from a reduction in debt finance. Mr Widdup noticed a similar trend.
“I suspect traditional debt and all the forms of semi-traditional debt are still available and vibrant, but have always relied on the equity market to do its part,” he said.
Looking for alternatives
So if traditional funding sources aren’t coming to the party, where else should mining companies be looking?
One option that’s been recently tabled in an increasing number of circles is private equity. Although according to Mr Testar, it’s not exactly a new player in the space.
“The PE model isn’t new by any stretch – names like Taurus and Orion have been around for a long time,” he said.
“But those are the big names, and what you’re seeing now is new entrants, smaller players that are more nimble looking for opportunities.”
Mr Widdup highlighted PE has a potential source of alternative financing, noting there are some great teams in the space who “know mining well”. However, he said managing the risks associated with exploration-stage projects won’t be easy.
“Historically, PE funding has been much more a source of ‘renovation’ rather than ‘development’ funding,” he said.
“PE is very risk aware, and its exceptionally hard to manage the risks through project development without also applying fall-back funding which eats into PE returns.” '
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