Let's start with ~165,500 oz of gold in the TBR account at 30-June-18, at an assumed cost basis of ~$790/oz (based on calculated holdings of ~167,000 at 31-Dec-17 when total holding cost was $132million per divvy announcement).
We then sell $250,015,115 of gold to cover the fully-franked divvy at say $1660/oz, so ~150,500 oz sold; leaving 15,000 oz in TBR's account. CGT on that would be (1660-790)*150500*0.30 = $39.3million, which is mostly covered by by the $33m payment from Rand's dividend plus cash in hand, so let's call that a wash. So 15,000 oz left over in TBR's account, which at $1660/oz is about $0.50 per share. TBR have stated their gold holding has gone up in size the last six months so let's round that up to $0.60 per share to account for the September quarter's production. If I'm wrong about the CGT then leave that $39.3million as cash in hand, or another ~80cps of value.
TBR have paid a $0.20/share dividend twice now (~$14million franked p.a.), so let's say that it's a regular thing. Analysis of quarterly reports implies that's pretty much about what they could stash into the gold pile each year if they weren't paying dividends so I'm happy to assume that dividend stream continues. At a dividend yield of 5%, that $0.20 divvy is $4/share of value.
So $5/share of special dividend, $0.60/share of leftover gold, and $4/share of ongoing value, assuming grades stay the same (as @eshmun has said, these are reducing); a total sum of $9.60/share ($10.40 without CGT), or let's round to ~$10-11/share.
The market seems to have found a fair value today IMHO.
FYI @eshmun you'll notice my disclosure on this post has changed (I prefer cap gains to income); so you'll likely see a lot less of me around the TBR board champ. All the best with your investment mate, you seem like a switched-on dude, despite your Billis cheerleading.
TBR Price at posting:
$10.50 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
