I think that's right. RW likes to compare Lena/Break of Day to Doray Minerals 'Andy Wells mine which is in the same area. Doray decided to mine Andy Wells on just 124,000 ozs of gold, so with the metallurgy hurdle cleared I don't think there is any doubt Musgrave will be mining at Lena/BoD in a year or two. Andy Wells went on to produce close to 1 million ozs . Given Lena/BoD are open along strike and at depth and as successive drilling programs intercept more gold you could reasonably assume that the reserves report when announced in July will subsequently increase with further drilling/mining.
Its interesting to compare the market caps of Breaker Resources and Musgrave both at a similar stage in their development. Breaker won't have its resource estimate out until the end of the year yet Breaker is trading at around a market cap of almost $90 million as against Musgrave's less than $16 million. The difference is Tom Sanders at Breaker is prepared to talk up his exploration results as though he had made another Nova discovery. And including the graphs in a recent presentation showing the share prices of Sirius after Nova was discovered and Sandfire Resources after the De Grussa discovery was clearly aimed at having the market believe Breaker could have a similar discovery at Bombora. That has yet to be proven.
RW won't play such games which is no doubt why the interest in Musgrave lags that in Breaker. RW values his credibility too much to risk losing it on inflated claims. That's a real plus because you can have confidence in what RW tells you about Cue.
Breaker also has the advantage that it is close to Kalgoorlie, in a greenfields belt and has a 2kms strike length against 1.6 kms at Lena/BoD. But then again as I understand it Breaker hasn't drilled below 100 metres as Musgrave has.
What Musgrave needs going forward is support from some bigger resource funds and when that happens we will know we are on our way. Additionally as the resource grows at Lena/BoD you could not discount some takeover/m&a interest emerging. Ramelius is only a few kms down the track from Cue and needs more ozs, it has a $90 million war chest to use.
There is a risk however that the gains Musgrave makes on its gold play could be undone at least temporarily by disappointments with the base metals drilling. I know RW is "encouraged" by the evidence of "alterations" in the holes drilled thus far but you would have to think that the chances of a significant discovery can't be that high. That said there is already evidence of copper in the area, earlier drilling at Mt Eelya demonstrated that. It would be ironic if it turned out to be Musgrave that had the "nova" discovery at Hollandaire and not Breaker Resources at Bombora.
A very interesting four weeks coming up. The long wait may be about to be rewarded. A significant rise in the POG would help!
MGV Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held