davmarc,
Fair call, it would be pretty foolish to take as gospel anything you read on HC, including what I post. I know I can vouch that what I post is my best technical thoughts on the subject, but you don't know that (although it should seem pretty obvious I have a strong background in what I'm posting about). But I've invested in some disasters in my time too, we all have. All I can suggest is, make up your own mind, DYOR and go with your gut instinct.
I would urge the same caution when listening to management of any company, STX included. Even if their intentions are pure as driven snow, MDs are subject to subconscious bias too, as is everybody who works for them. Bias in the O&G industry is ubiquitous and there are entire week-long courses in the industry devoted to nothing more than identifying and trying to remove sources of bias in geologists and engineers.
Likewise the biggest issue on HC by far IMO is holder bias. Look at how many times a positive post, even one lacking substance, gets voted up while a well-reasoned post by a critical poster is ignored, ridiculed and the poster has their integrity questioned. Then the post questioning their integrity gets voted up too.
This is not coincidental, it's because holders have a VERY strong bias to seek out views that tell them they've made a good choice and ignore contrary views.
But I don't think anyone here is 'fawning and gushing' - on the contrary they are not taking anything I say at face value which is exactly as it should be. If you want to see fawning and gushing, go to a stock where somebody is saying "I am an expert and this stock is definitely going to be a 10-bagger" and you will see some real fawning and gushing - right up until the moment it all ends in tears and everybody loses their money. I actually really like the STX board here precisely because the guys are not instantly jumping on the flame wagon if I say something negative, but will consider it reasonably and debate it. They are willing to challenge themselves and IMO that makes them good investors, better than many on HC.
Anyway, the key point to take away here is that nobody knows if this is going to be a success yet, and if anybody tells you they know for sure one way or the other, I think then you can safely ignore them IMO. There are only different degrees of uncertainty among different people depending on their individual interpretations, and their individual bias for that matter.
I'm certainly not going to say you should believe everything I say. In fact I actively encourage you to challenge me.
PS In reference to your comments on my competence I would also just like to point out that I called it that these coals were wet a long time before STX did. In fact I called it before the frac results were even announced, though I said I was willing to defer to STX since they had access to all the data. Turns out I was actually in a better position to analyse it than STX were - possibly they were biased by their hopes the coals were dry, I don't know.
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