Well naturally my hypothesis is the one I think is most...

Well naturally my hypothesis is the one I think is most supported by what we know... otherwise I would have a different hypothesis.

But one thing I've learned in my time as a geologist is that the rocks throw up surprises all the time. All we can do is revise (and hopefully narrow) the range of possible outcomes as each new bit of info is released by the company. Eventually, the range of outcomes hopefully narrows enough that you feel confident enough to take a punt on it (whether you're deciding to drill a well, farm in to a prospect, or just buy some shares in a non-professional capacity).

If the true outcome turns out to fall within your range of possible outcomes, that's a success. That's about the best you can hope for.