Ann: Southern Cooper Basin Gas Project Operations Update, page-2

While ewc thread is (so far) silent on the significance of this announcement, there are some very informed and valued opinions expressed on the stx forum. Below are comments by two hc forum posters (PSI81 with 27 ticks and hardcash with 17 ticks) who have a reputation for expressing considered opinions.

Psi81
27 ticks

Time to install a jet pump on K1 IMO. This is taking too long. You cannot waste time with sub-optimal pumping on a three well, linear pilot - you are fighting recharge and linear pilots are the worst possible set up for this. If K1 is not operating at full potential then none of the wells are properly shielding each other.
I have seen enough that I am fairly confident in the reservoir now. I think it must be pretty close to a 50-50 chance of technical success, though I wouldn't want to make a call on economic success yet.
rexsh, I don't think I'd say that flare is 2-3 times bigger than the previous one. It's only a little bit bigger IMO (allowing for wind) and it's too hard to judge from a single photo, you need a video. I asked my friend (the Cooper expert I've mentioned previously) and he estimated around 100 Mscfd for this flare, but did say it could be 50 or 200 Mscfd just as easily.
I was thinking 150 Mscfd so that was pretty good agreement.
This is actually, IMO, a pretty good time to buy in. The SP is cheap and I've talked previously about finding that point in time where the project risk lowers but before that becomes obvious to the mug punters. The reservoir has been derisked to a fair degree, but the non-optimal pilot setup means that to the average observer, STX seems to be struggling a bit with the project. In fact, the fact they're struggling to reach desorption pressure is probably a positive sign for the reservoir's productivity. It's just a bad sign for STX because they have limited resources and the longer this goes on, the greater the risk that the market will start to lose hope and they may find themselves in a difficult situation financially.
If I was in charge at STX I would be looking very seriously at using the current depressed market for rigs to secure one at a cheap rate, install a jet pump on K1 and then drill and frac K4 and K5 on either side of the existing linear pilot and turn it into a five-well pilot. That would really speed up the process of proving commercial rates because K1 would be fully shielded and operating at full efficiency. It's been 13 months since they started production at Klebb and I'm pretty sure if I'd suggested 13 months ago it would take this long to commercial rates, certain people would have been screaming accusations of downramping.
All in all though, I think things are looking pretty good. It's much better that the reservoir is good but the engineering needs improvement than the other way around - because engineering can be improved, reservoir can't.

Hardcash
17 ticks

poli poli (Swahili for slowly slowly) is the best way to sum up Klebb thus far...and for good reason!
This project is frontier stuff and to the credit of STX they have taken it slowly and not stuffed their wells, and their chances in the process! With what they now know you can guarantee that the next wells will be bigger in size, with bigger fracks, with bigger pumps that will result in much faster outcomes! This is only possible with the knowledge they have gained from Klebb over the last 13 months!
We must all remember how far STX has come in that time! From no chance (according to some).....to a very real chance of commercial success! Clearly it's been a steep learning curve for STX but all up they have done an outstanding job! Obviously DW has a great team behind him!!
When AGL, Origin, Santos, BPT or whoever comes knocking on the door this project will most likely have a 100% success rate because STX were cautious from the outset! This will give STX a strong negotiating position for whatever eventuates IMO.
Psi81, I appreciate your cautious position but if this project is not commercial from here I'm a buffoon! Going buy the continued buying of Directors and the wording of this ann I'd say nothing short of an unforseen calamity can push STX off course from here! Having said that you have always been straight down the line and urged cautious within your assessments, openly admitting you didn't have all information, never saying that STX wouldn't succeed, just articulating the hurdles to do so. I appreciate your education and especially your recommendation (with usual cautions attached) to BUY - it's a biggy for you!
Congrats to the STX team on a sensational 2015 with more to come in 2016! Merry Xmas!
HC