You have underestimated the impact of Feb codeine drama.
My group of pharmacies has near to Zero sales of codeine 10mg/15mg in March, and very minimal in Apr-July. Even when some recovery in volume is appearing, it is nowhere near the volume before Feb.
Combination factors:
1. People stockpiled before Feb
2. People don't want or no time to see Dr for codeine script
3. People simply not indicated for codeine (using for addiction)
4. Dr getting scrutiny from DoH
5. Unavailability or low availability of codeine stock from manufacturers (at that time only 1 brand available from wholesalers like EBOS, Sigma, API)
Ann: Sigma 2018/19 Half Year Results Presentation, page-4
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