Ann: Shaw and Partners Emerging Leaders Presentation, page-41

Depends how they combine, but all those things could occur simultaneously. When things go wrong, correlations of macro factors act differently. I'm not saying the following will happen, however it is not implausible:

China experiences its first major hiccup -> demand for Aussie resources collapses -> dollar bottoms out

Large miners cease less profitable mines, small players bankrupted -> Drop in GDP, causes recession

Unemployment up -> Mortgage defaults follow -> House prices collapse (demand from china gone too)
-> banks in trouble.

Increased leverage in banks + Higher interest margins required for increased defaults risk
-> Market interest rates go up

Remembering that market interest rates equal the reserve rate plus a risk premium, this can easily go up in a major downturn even if the reserve bank doesn't raise the base rate themselves. The sure fire way to get a downturn here will be collapse in resource prices due to China having whatever problems, which would undoubtedly drop the exchange rate at the same time.