NST's aim is as per what is stated in that slide, ie to have 120-150koz per annum mine production attributed to NST from CTP. That may not mean they will get there from the initial production level, of which we do not know, but could be 100-150k koz pa split 60NST/40TAM (ie for TAM 40-60koz pa).
In his recent presentations BB was talking about having production centres with 250+ Koz pa, and one therefore needs to assume that is why he has potential 120-150koz CTP production attributed to NST since he can only count on NST's agreed 60% share. The one complication is that over time some of those ounces may come from tenements recently acquired by NST but not part of the 60/40 JV deal. So it would be possible for TAM's share of production to fall below 40% but still stay at 40-60k ounces as some ore from outside the JV tenements is processed. At this stage I am not aware if the non-JV tenements have a JORC.
We will know more once NST has announced what their drilling results have done to the level of reserve/resource ounces on the JV tenements.
I agree that NST will want to take out TAM - the later the better for us I think as NST want to get into production in only two years time, by which time they may have found a lot more ounces there and the AUD POG could be heaps higher.
Just one other point, when working out valuations based on ASIC and expected gold price, its important to deduct the 30% company rate from the operating margins because BB will certainly not include them in an inflated valuation when making his bid for TAM, if he does make a bid.
loki
TAM Price at posting:
8.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
