correction on numbers/calculations : 5 M$ profits per quarter...

correction on numbers/calculations : 5 M$ profits per quarter makes for 20M$ profits per year (not 25) and at 12x earnings its : 240 M$ fair market cap (not 125 M$) if we assume 200.000 tpa and 500 US$ per tonne.

The future fair market value of syrah is at this point in time extremely difficult to estimate/predict, that is due to :

1/ our targeted timeline (ar we talking fair value of syrah next year ? in 3 years ? or in 5 years or even 10 years from now ?).

2/ average basket price of graphite (it depends if they do achieve 98% purity commanding a price premium instead of currently 96%, it depends if they could recoveersome decent tonnes of large flakes, and it depends on how the natural graphite VS synthetic graphite battle for anodes will play out).

For instance, if they could achieve : 350.000 tpa and 600 US$ per tonne. That would mean 130M$ of net annual earnings (assuming 20M$ cash burn per quarter and therefore 80M$ cash burn per year). At 12x earnings : 1.56 Billion US$ fair market cap. (without the valuee added business).


So the valuation range could be all over the place depending on management execution and market demand for natural graphite for batteries (my understanding is that elon musk prefers the more expensive synthetic graphite for anodes because you could engineer the atom/crystal structure unlike natural, but no idea to what extent engineering the synthetic is possible VS engineering the natural, after all even with synthetic graphite engineers are starting with a natural petroleum coke product (80% carbon purity) and purifying it thermally, it is not like they are building the synthetic graphite atom by atom....and some graphite deposits may come with clean ordered crystal structures out of the ground woth minimal defects, so syrah may slect its graphite that goes into anode batteries....just an idea....).

Hope that helped,