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29/10/18
21:11
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Originally posted by Midnight26
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Bad luck to the people that have done their dough here but there's normally some lessons to be learnt from tragedies like this.
Here's your problem IMO: 31.1Mt @ --> 1.3 g/t <--
Sorry but it blows my mind that people buy into low grade operations. They are often unforgiving, high cost per ounce, marginal operations with massaged mining studies that can be built like a house of cards. One or two critical mistakes like this and the money runs out, e.g. if the resource model is flawed and they blow up what little available ore you have access to suddenly you're in the deep end.
I highlighted some of the crucial "management-speak" phrases in the ANN. "revision of the structural interpretation" at Golden Wings is a scary one. That can destroy half of your tonnes. Is that going to happen at Gilbeys too? They chose to post a whole bunch of pictures of their exploration highlights but not one section of the block model illustrating how the grade control data has "largely confirmed" the original interpretations. I think people would like to see more data supporting the latter:
The results from the current extensive grade control drilling program are expected to confirm the view that we have already mined through the areas of variable grade and tonnage in all pits.
Historical reconciliation from the original Gilbeys pit, main ore source for the life of mine, provides further confidence that the reconciliation will improve to be in line with models.
This close spaced drilling has significantly improved the geological understanding of the three deposits. In particular it has led to a revision of the structural interpretation of the mineralisation at Golden Wings, which to date has underperformed relative to the original resource models and is the most significant contributor to the production underperformance of the project to date. Mining to date using the new drilling and interpretation has improved ore recognition. The modelling of this deposit with the additional data is well advanced and is expected to significantly improve the ability for the Company to accurately forecast production from this pit going forward.
The additional grade control data in the Gilbeys deposit has largely confirmed the original interpretations.
The modelling of this data is underway and is expected to result in a confirmation of the original estimates of the tonnes and grade of ore being available to be mined and processed in the next few months.
The grade control program in Sly Fox has largely confirmed the original resource tonnes and grade from the current pit floor to the base of the designed pit.
GLTAH
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Actually, after rereading it, this one is a cracker!
"The results from the current extensive grade control drilling program are expected to confirm the view that we have already mined through the areas of variable grade and tonnage in all pits."
...so the dirt we just mined was the dodgy dirt (that lead to a new resource model). Everything else is just fine. Don't worry about the other 15Mt. The 25,000 metres of GC drilling we just finished won't change a thing.
They should be moving heaven and earth to convince investors that the mining operation is robust but so far I can't see much evidence, just assurances.
All IMHO.