Originally posted by loki01
Spec
The share price is a bit of a disaster at this point in time, being down 50% today.
I have no idea if they will come out OK in the longer term.
Looks like people dumping it for whatever they can get. And possibly also shorters may have got a hold of it and moved it down even more.
I will have to give this doggie a bit more thought to see if there is a reasonable chance of a turnaround, unless the gold price gets to AUD2000/ounce, which I think there is a chance in 2019 due to a falling AUD. The thought of that made me decide to put a small amount into buying a trading parcel just now at 12 cents. If it drops to 8 cents I may sell out.
Good luck.
loki (I can not help taking a bit of a gamble just to get my blood running, even if some of it get spilt.)
Disaster is the right word
I thought the fall from $0.50, was fairly brutal, but.... today has truly been a blood bath.
While the E/V is around $95m, the cash position is not as bad as perhaps some think it is?
So I am hopeful that for your sake you make a few $$ on it going forward.
They had cash of $18.2m at the end of the quarter, then a further $4.3m in bullion (which they state has since been sold in Oct), plus the $5m from the SPP. So, liquidity of $22.6 + $5 giving around $27.6m. Now they have a debt payment of $1.6 in Dec, so pare that back to $26m, then its all about whether they hit the high or low end of the production target as discussed by other posters.
Suffice to say, we know that they have a loan covenant which stops them from utilizing all of the cash they hold (at a guess around $10m).
So actual cash buffer is about $16m.
I note that they are going to mine 700k for the Nov & Dec, to allow for a large build up on the ROM pad (which was supposed to be done back in May june, but obviously that got used up with all the mistakes they made/faced), so the quarterly Dec looks expensive, but this will decrease I assume in the Mar Q? Which will then allow the company to actually bank some much needed cash (i.e... and hopefully show the market they do have a viable operation). Plus, they state they will be able to be more selective with the ore, so... higher grades etc.
Is that how you read it?
I sincerely hope this does not go to $0.08. That would basically imply it will go under, surely its not at that stage?
