Originally posted by loki01
Bottomline:
Cash and bullion on hand at end of September 2018 $22.6m, plus whatever they got from the $5m SPP in October - so a possible $27.6m
Outlays forecast for the December quarter = $42,0m
Estimated production for the December 2018 quarter = 19,000 to 22,000 ounces
Given the estimated production and assuming an $1750 average price for gold sold (not sure what the impact is from hedging) their revenue in the December quarter would be around $33.3-38.5m, which implies a deficit on activities of $3.5-8.7m. This is a simplistic assumption that all gold produced is sold in the quarter and does not account for bullion on hand.
When reading the quarterly its clear they had to raise money to fund capex last quarter - they simply would have run out of funds and now be in the hands of the banks.
Grade reconciliation has been a bit of a worry - not sure if its been fully sorted out and what the implications might be for future production/revenue, especially during the first two high stripping cost years.
The quarterly gives enough justification why Dunbar walked the plank.
Perhaps its safer to wait for the release of the December 2018 quarterly report before taking a punt here as its likely to be cashflow negative again.
loki
A fair and accurate summary Loki.
Cash - ok, but... as you say, they had to raise. But the timing was damn poor.
Grade reconciliation is also disappointing, but mainly regarding Golden wings. Which was supposed to be the higher grade kicker at the start.
Clearly Mike was way out of his depth, but... he should have bloody realised this and done something about it months ago!
I agree with you about the Dec quarter being a negative one. Around $5m is my guess.
Such a shame they cannot add the grills they need right now, as that would probably allow them to break even.
Such a brutal day for shareholders. I was tempted to sell after really getting through the quarterly, but... I won't, even though GCY is now becoming what I had hoped it never would, because of all the supposed planning that Mike D and the team had done.
All the bloody phone calls to Mike, what a waste of time.
Almost $200m will be spent on this project before it hits commercial production!!! Arg!
The Sp could even half by the end of the day, although I think that would make it oversold, but.... sadly today, it deserves to be smashed.
Which is hard to type as I watch my 10 years of holding and supporting the company go up in smoke (profit and trust).
I can only warn people from rading my posts on HC in regards to gold stocks, except for the ones that go up (the rare few).
Not looking for redemption.
RED... MML... BLK.... EAR... KIN.... BDR... DRM... PGI... etc.
