LTR 1.17% 84.5¢ liontown resources limited

Discount rate used just 8%. Lithium Recovery 79%, might be ok if...

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  1. 6,058 Posts.
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    Discount rate used just 8%.

    Lithium Recovery 79%, might be ok if producing a 5.6% concentrate but is the demand there for that?
    Studies says optimisations for 6% ongoing.
    6% is the benchmark so expect recoveries may drop (may not) and projected tpa also from 360kt.

    Total cash costs of $522 p/t, (excluding Ta credits, may/may not make sense to have Ta plant)
    $US650 p/t LOM FOB Geraldton for some reason, @ 5.6%.

    Utilisation rate used 91.3%, highest projection of any spod operation in Australia.
    Another metric that could give way to less output. 85% used by most others and that's questionable to date.

    If recoveries drop to 75%, utilisation to 80-85%, tpa produced reduces to ~300kt, what does wiping 60kt of production do to the total cash cost? Maybe up around the >$600 p/t mark or they can optimise reductions elsewhere? Time will tell

    Lithium prices don't offer much margin for error or incentive to take the risk of investing $250m imo. It was hard to get that done when prices were $US900-1000. This is why I find it hard to see these projects to get over the line without increasing lithium prices, which is my wish but That might not happen for a year or two again until current producers ramp ups/expansions are absorbed.

    Something from left field may be the only catalyst in 2019?
    Last edited by El Jefe: 29/01/19
 
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