re: Bear A$5.60
DCF Approximates Brent = basecase- US$10/bbl: Same as base case for exploration and discovered resource value.
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They should have used ~USD30/bbl for the Bear case instead of 10/bbl which I find ridiculous. Will need a massive oversupply of global Oil to bring down prices to that level.
Last time I saw that was 20 yrs back & STO just about survived that cycle in '98-99 by averaging AUD21 & 27/bbl average for those 2 years. Those were very tough times for Onshore & offshore Exploration sector coupled with a weaker AUD rate (58-62c) to the USD.
These days STO's break-even is around USD32-40/bbl & the exchange rate hovers around the 72-75c. Base case assumption looks fine. Bull case POO can vary.
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