WAF 0.84% $1.49 west african resources limited

Ann: Sanbrado Confirmed as 150,000 oz/pa Gold Producer by 2019, page-14

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  1. 2,013 Posts.
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    There's quite bit to this. Basically the reserve is tall and vertical, and is completely the wrong shape for Open Pit mining. They were "stuck" having to deliver a DFS that they promised, for open-pit. But to access the resource they have to dig a huge upside down triangle with 45 deg walls in which most of the earth they dig carries no gold (the bad stripping ratio), and that makes the NPV low because of rising (5% compounding) expenses over the 9 years.

    And they didn't have time to do the UG DFS. If they go underground mining, they will just dig access to the bottom of the reserve, and (very simplistically) let the gold carrying earth fall into the hollow, which will make the stripping ratio irrelevant. They will cut the mining and processing costs substantially this way. I then reasonably expect an NPV triple or 4x the current NPV.

    I'll do better personal analysis later (this is just based on reading the report) but you will not they have clearly expressed that they expect "substantial" changes to the NPV when they have have done the UG DFS and they will also have added reserves.

    It's a 3-5 mth wait, but given that this ann was a forced analysis of NPV based on incorrect assumptions (open-pit mining), this will be a screaming good buy IMHO.

    150,000oz/annum @ $1500 x3 + 97,000oz/a @$1500 x6 ... approx $150,000,000 per annum gold. The problem that lead to the disappointing NPV is that they analysed it for open pit mining which is absolutely the wrong approach. I have done mining plans where changing from open pit quadruples the profitability of a mine, I suggest this is that scenario; 2 to 4 x current valuation EXCLUDING new reserve.

    The water is less of a problem than I expected, and the geology is as simple as I expected. It's actually an excellent mine IMHO.

    The next DFS will be "substantially" (see the Ann) higher using only the current reserves... (they also alerted expected higher JORC reserve allocations form future drilling), for those prepared to wait til Q3.
 
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