James... if what you say is correct, then AMA is following the correct strategy.... i think you are correct in that there will be better anti crash technology
But even if they don't industry revenue (maybe not profit margins?) decrease ... then building scale should allow AMA to offer lower costs... which... when insurance premiums start falling due to lower crash costs... they should be in a position to benefit further from and continue to cherry pick the well run yet less unprofitable crash repair businesses.
So even though the individual jobs are still as profitable to work on.. say cost +x%... due to the lower total revenue, businesses which cant lower their fixed / overhead costs will suffer more.
AMA should be able to navigate this. I happenned to use one of their services lately when my neighbour reversed into my car and I can see how the industry has become a lot more commercialised... much better use of technology and i would say that for the first time in my life i felt like it was a business I wouldnt mind revisiting... never experienced customer service at a panel beater before.
I think the 442m market cap is too high for "right now" ... but I do expect over 10 years this will exceed the billion market cap as it builds scale and efficiency.
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