If the Alkane deal gets voted down, the RMS offer becomes unconditional. The share price of EXU would then have a firm floor of 1/4 of the RMS share price plus $0.02 as arbitrage sets in. Given the current RMS share price, EXU is likely to trade around $0.13 at that point.
EXU shareholders can then either accept the RMS offer or not. If RMS fails to gain control of the company, then it opens up lots of possibilities. For instance, RMS could provide finance for part of the mill for EXU to go it alone. At the AGM, JL said he was confident that the banks would lend 70% of the capex. He was also confident that they could secure funding for the remaining 30% through non bank lenders to avoid dilution at the then current share price of 8.9cents.
Even if they did need a capital raise, with the RMS offer valuing each stare around 13 cents, the capital raise would be done at a similar price (perhaps even more) than the current Alkane offer.
That’s why I’m going to vote against the Alkane deal. I’ll have another month to decide whether I take up the RMS offer. It’s the best of both worlds to me.
