I agree that spreading risk is important, but I also think you...

I agree that spreading risk is important, but I also think you can choose a better point in the cycle - i.e. AFTER Phase III and when it's on the path to commercialisation. Even then there are still huge risks on that path to commercialisation.

Yes you may have to give up some of the upside waiting, but you can still multi-bag AFTER the Phase III trials have been complete.

Look at stocks like Sirtex and Polynovo and where their share price was at after their trials were complete for example. Mind you, this is still NOT a risk free proposition, because the execution risk can also be significant on the path to commercialisation.