IRI 1.90% 53.5¢ integrated research limited

Ann: Results Briefing - FY2015 First Half Year, page-4

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  1. 204 Posts.
    It is a good result and the increased dividend should assist in determining a solid floor price, with movement to the upside, noting that WBC investing... research indicated only a 5.2c dividend for the total FY15 period.


    {caption}Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share){/caption}
    1   2014 2015 2016 2017
    2 EPS 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.5
    3 DPS 5.0 5.2 6.1 6.7

    Source: Thomson Consensus Estimates

    We know that IRI half year to year earnings are  "lumpy" and hardly "correlated."
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12
    0 EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS
    1 H1 FY15 H2 FY14 H1 FY14 H2 FY13 H1 FY13 H2 FY12 H1 FY12 H2 FY11 H1 FY11 H2 FY10 H1 FY10
    2 4.46 2.35 2.68 3.76 1.64* 3.28 2.13 3.05 1.42 1.62 1.62
    3 FY EPS N/A 5.03 N/A 5.4 N/A 5.41 N/A 4.47 N/A 3.24 N/A
    4 H1 FY13 anouncement - The first half results were impacted by thedelay of a few major license sales. As a consequence, first half revenue is down 3%compared to the previous corresponding period.

    H1 FY15 is a fantastic result - some 18% better than the previous best half when looking at the past 10.

    I am expecting Mr Market to temper his enthusiasm for IRI was on the above and also the poor quality of the outlook provided by IRI.

    Appendix 4D - FY2015 Half Year  - Page 5

    "Outlook The Company anticipates profit growth for the 2015 financial year in underlying operational performance but reported financial performance will be influenced by fluctuations in currency exchange rates."

    mmmm what could this mean - or more importantly what is IRI intent of it's meaning?

    EPS for FY14 was 5.03c.  H1 FY15 EPS as stated 4.46c per share.  

    My concern is that H2 FY15 EPS could only be 2c per share and the IRI guidance per the above  "is water tight".

    I am disappointed that there was "guidance" that provides no clear "positive guidance".

    It will be interesting if IRI soars 10-15% after open, if it does i will consider bailing and jumping back in 7 month's time.

    good luck to all shareholders.
 
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