No, it would never be $1.15 as obviously there is uncertainty...

No, it would never be $1.15 as obviously there is uncertainty until the day the deal is closed. It would be a much, much wider discount if the market thought the deal was not going to happen. The gap will close once acceptances start coming through - this hasn't happened yet.

There is no way you can say that it is unlikely to complete given the current fact pattern. Hostile bidders do not make their pitch and expect the target to roll out the red carpet. They wouldn't have been surprised by a single thing that's happened so far, and they are in a very, very strong position. It may have upset some of Dow's shareholders but that doesn't change the facts of the situation. SPO has no credible defence (one of the weakest target's statements you will ever see) and an institution-heavy register that will mob into this bid.

Based on the two pieces of info I stated above this will start to happen.

Anyway, let's quit speculating and see what unfolds - one will be right and one wrong.