I'm not saying not increasing the price isn't a positive for DOW...

I'm not saying not increasing the price isn't a positive for DOW shareholders, it is. I'm saying that declaring it final is a catalyst to get SPO shareholders to accept the offer. That, combined with point 2, is the only way to drive insitutional acceptances, which is what matters here. Insto's don't accept into conditional offers or where there is uncertainty as to the terms of the bid as they want to retain max flexibility and/or can't under fund mandate rules. With an insto acceptance facility, they can accept and retain the flexibility. It puts pressure on SPO especially if acceptances go above 50% and there is an effective change of control.

It is not uncommon to see a reject recommendation changed to accept from the target once a certain level of control is achieved by the bidder. This is because the dynamic for minority shareholders is different once control of the board passes.

If DOW didn't want to complete the deal as the OP was suggesting, they would not have extended the offer would they? This is playing out as one would expect a hostile offer to play out, and I still firmly think it will get up (as does the market given the SPO price is still $1.08)