CT1 0.00% 0.2¢ constellation technologies limited

Ann: Response to Appendix 4C Query, page-12

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  1. Eqz
    1,270 Posts.
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    Food for thought with CCP:

    Annual FY operating costs are around $2.5 ~ $3M. (Lets use the lower $2.5M in this analysis)
    Smart tags sold via channel partners generate $120 pa.
    While smart tags sold directly are priced at $180.

    The companies direction is to leverage their channel partners at I think  65/35 ratio so lets average a smart tag at $145 pa.
    So to reach break even we need to sell over 17 thousand smart tags.

    Our current CCV is $730k so we have around 5,000 active smart tags in active subscription.
    So we need 350% growth on our current subscription amount to break even.

    Below is the CCV growth from Q1 2017 to now.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14
    0 Customer Contract Value (CCV) Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 2020
    1 24 Month CCV   $    275,000   $    340,000   $   440,000   $   530,000   $   630,000 $ 750,000   $    900,000   $   1,080,000   $ 1,296,000   $   1,555,200   $ 1,866,240   $ 2,239,488   $ 2,687,386
    2 Increase   24% 29% 20% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

    We are growing CCV at about 20% average each quarter.
    Assuming all stays as is we are pretty far away from returning a net profit.

    But realistically we know the company will sign more channel partners and expand into new geographies/countries and the technology is 'morphing' to target new markets as we have seen with these new Ph sensors and so forth.
    So in my 'optimistic' model I see us break even 1H 2019.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10
    0 Customer Contract Value (CCV) Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
    1 24 Month CCV   $    275,000   $    340,000   $   440,000   $   530,000   $   630,000   $   819,000   $ 1,064,700   $   1,597,050   $ 2,395,575
    2 Increase   24% 29% 20% 19% 30% 30% 50% 50%

    Pure speculation and of course have assumed Opex stays flat.

    Just food for thought and I also think CCP are selling the devices too cheap, unless we make a significant footprint globally.
 
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