CTP 1.92% 5.1¢ central petroleum limited

Thanks for the Reply PSI!If you have time happy for you to check...

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  1. 138 Posts.
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    Thanks for the Reply PSI!

    If you have time happy for you to check my figures. 

    The increase in sales volume from NGP i used is 27TJ/day.

    CTP have indicated this on some other announcements. I checked that against their plants capacity and current sale contracts as below:

    Plant Capacity:
    M - 22Tj/day (CTPs share)
    D - 5 Tj/day
    PV - 15 Tj/day
    Total = 42 TJ/day

    Current sales contracts are 15TJ/day.
    42TJ/day - 15TJ/day = 27 TJ/day

    So that does look like an increase 27TJ/day is theoretically possible. Weather those plants can operate at those flow rates remains to be seen i guess?

    So total increase in gas sold per quarter through NGP i used 27TJ/day * 90 days = 2430TJ

    For the assumed gas price I was being conservative and just assumed they have sold it for at least the same as their current gas sales. I would expect this to be higher than this as the east cost Gas Market should get a better price than NT?

    So i was using $5550/TJ. This is just based on the last few quarterly gas sales. They don't publish a separate figure for Oil and gas just a combine sale. So i just assumed a Oil price of AU$85/bbl and got the following:
    OIL Sales are $3.8M YTD based on 1 bbl of oil selling for AU$85 
    Gas Sales are $16.22M YTD - for 2921 TJ sold. So 1 TJ sells for roughly $5550/TJ


    So if the above is correct then NGP revenue increase is 2430TJ * $5550/TJ = $13.5M per quarter.

    Is the $/TJ number way out? on the AEMO site it has the short term price in brisbane at $9.5/GJ or $9500/TJ. So i would expect a long term contract to be less than this. Then would have to take off pipeline tariffs. 



 
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