I don't think the market is waiting to confirm sales. There will be a lot of revenue coming in from the NGP but the actual bottom line profit will be much lower. Generally the market is pretty accurate at valuing known short-term cashflows and there are no big surprises in the NGP. We know the volumes and the rough prices and costs. That's why the SP didn't really move (beyond short-term speculation) when the NGP came online - it was a low-risk project so declaration of commercial operations doesn't really result in any re-rate.
I've said previously that I think the problem with CTP's SP is really reflective of the low 2P reserves figure. The current 2P figure is mostly accounted for in sales domestically and through NGP and those cashflows are already built into the SP.
IMO the catalyst for a proper re-rate is the addition of new 2P, or at least new gas that is likely to convert to 2P. So positive news from PV13, the Qld CSG acreage and Dukas is likely to have more impact on the SP than anything related to the NGP.
