Addendum to post 13820306: DJ Carmichael valuation assumes that...

Addendum to post 13820306:

DJ Carmichael valuation assumes that the POG over the valuation period will be
$1275 USD.($650 USD cost & $625 USD profit)
At present the POG is $1310/oz which is about $1408 AUD.
Now lets assume that KRM only produces 40K ozs this fin. year,
then this would be a NPAT of :

40k x $625 US = $25 mil Us or $26.88 mil AUD
That is 7.55c eps or 75c SP @ a P/E of 10 (not 69c)

A reasonable forecast for the remainder of the FY would be
120,000 ton @ an average grade of 16 g/t which would
produce 61736 ozs or 52,475 ozs KRM share. this accounts
for high grade supplementary feed from the much publicised Splay vein.

If we assume that the costs are as per Carmichael's estimate
of $650 USD/oz ($699 AUD) and that the POG will remain at $1408/oz AUD
then NPAT (there will likely be no tax due due to closure expenses
carried forward) will likely be, IMO, $41.455 mil or 11.57c eps or
a SP of $1.15 based on a P/E of 10.

Again, IMO, Carmichael's have provided the new CEO with a new CEO
very conservative valuation while leaving things subject to the
Sept Qtr report and the tapping of the Splay vein.

It seems very unusual to spruik the benefits of the Splay vein but then not
account for it in the estimate of grade and ozs AU produced in this FY.

All of this, of course, is IMO.
Moorookamick