Interestingly, the VWAP for the opening day was 3.3c which is...

Interestingly, the VWAP for the opening day was 3.3c which is exactly the closing price before they were suspended.
Only $5k worth of shares changed hands above 4c and that was all on the close.

You can make a valid argument for this stock being worth zero and an equally valid argument for > 20c valuation. What I haven't seen is anyone put a chance against the various outcomes.

The case for a zero value is based on the net present value of all future dividends. If the company is never willing or able to pay a dividend, gets delisted and the value siphoned off to Chinese interests then the value to Aussie shareholders is precisely zero. Given the majority shareholders, I give that a 75% chance.

Alternatively, XPD could turn into a normal company earning money in the largest, fastest growing market in the world (China), expanding and exporting to other countries, paying out some cash to shareholders before being taken over for a total payout of, say 30c. If that's a 25% chance, you've got a value of 7.5c. Subtract a bit for the risk and time value and maybe 6c is an undemanding price.

Anyone got a better valuation?

(Note I bought $10k of stock at 3.5c about a year ago.)