Hi
I have updated the forecast to end of june.
The announcement is very clear, revenue from these shipments, subject to final assays is expected to be approx. 26 M. They would have received approx. 24.7M aud and the amount withheld of approx. 1.3 M aud will be paid subject to final adjustments as a result of testing.
Note there has been a constant difference to the amount of DMT announced as shipped and then later confirmed. notwithstanding histocisals I have assumed no net loss or gain and that 26M will come in.
the following forecast which looks to calculate the cash generated by the end of june 2019 is based on the following assumptions.
82928 DMT of spod is shipped in the half, which is over the top end of production guidance which has been confirmed again today. It assumes all that is ready is in fact shipped
As a result of the above 40000 tons is forecast for april to june QTR spod sales
Average exchange rate of 72 is used for the entire half
The average sale price of spod used going forward is 732 USD/ ton 6%
which is the average of the old price 880usd per ton FOB and the new approximate price paid (assuming FOB) which is calculated from the announcement information.
TA price of 70 usd/pound is used
TA of 20 T at 30% sold each month, so model includes 120T of TA at 30% at 70 usd per ton at 72 cents USD:AUD is sold this half.
OUTGOINGS - forecast of 51M aud as per most resent Qtrly cashflow used for this QTR
Outgoings - April to June forecast at 51 M being the same as company forecast this qtr
This forecast indicates the total cash generated after this above guidance production and sale of approx. 320K - breakeven lets say
if the outgoings are significantly less next QTR, say 35M, the cash generated would be approx. $16Maud for six months, or running at approx.$32MPA at above nameplate production
look forward to your comment.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 | Column 8 | Column 9 | Column 10 | Column 11 |
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| 1 | | | | | rate used | 0.72 | JAN to MARCH | | | | |
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| 2 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 3 | SPOD | | | ACTUAL shipments announced | PRICE USD FOB | FX RATE | AUD PRICE | TOTAL AUD | | | |
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| 4 | | | | 18000 | $ 880.00 | 0.72 | $ 1,222.22 | 22,000,000.00 | | | |
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| 5 | | | | 4928 | $ 584.42 | 0.72 | $ 811.69 | 4,000,000.00 | | | |
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| 6 | | | TOTAL SOLD | 22928 | | | | 26,000,000.00 | APPROX AUD REVENUE | |
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| 7 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 8 | | | | AVERAGE FOB PRICE BOTH SHIPMENTS 690 USD | | | | | | | |
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| 9 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 10 | | | | EXPECTED TO BE OR READY TO BE SHIPPED | | | | | | | |
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| 11 | | | | 30000 | $ 732.21 | 0.72 | $ 1,016.96 | 30,508,658.01 | | | |
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| 12 | | | | | price average of old and new | | | | |
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| 13 | | | | | assume FOB | | | | | | |
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| 14 | TA | CONVERT | | | | | | | | |
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| 15 | TONS TOTAL | POUNDS | concerntrate | PRODUCT CONTAINED POUNDS | PRICE USD | FX RATE | AUD PRICE | TOTAL | | | |
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| 16 | 20 | 44000 | 30% | 13200 | $ 70.00 | 0.72 | $ 97.22 | 1,283,333.33 | confirmed ammouncment sold | |
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| 17 | 20 | 44000 | 30% | 13200 | $ 70.00 | 0.72 | $ 97.22 | 1,283,333.33 | confirmed announcement pending sale |
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| 18 | 20 | 44000 | 30% | 13200 | $ 70.00 | 0.72 | $ 97.22 | 1,283,333.33 | forecast to sell march assumed | |
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| 19 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 20 | | | | | | | Assuming all availaible IS SOLD | 57,791,991.34 | Approx revenue end of MARCH QTR | |
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| 21 | | | | | | | EXPECTED OUTFLOWS | -51,000,000.00 | Ass announcmed in QTRly cashflow report |
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| 22 | | | | | | | BAL | 6,791,991.34 | Approx Cash generated end of qtr | |
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| 23 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 24 | Guidance remains unchanged 65000 or 80000 | | | NEXT QTR April to JUNE | | | | |
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| 25 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 26 | | | | | rate used | 0.72 | | | | | |
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| 27 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 28 | | | | forecast april to june produced and Sold SPOD | PRICE USD FOB | FX RATE | AUD PRICE | TOTAL AUD | | | |
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| 29 | | | top guidance | 40000 | $ 732.21 | 0.72 | $ 1,016.96 | 40,678,210.68 | | | |
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| 30 | TA | CONVERT | | | | | | | | |
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| 31 | TONS TOTAL | POUNDS | concerntrate | PRODUCT CONTAINED POUNDS | PRICE USD | FX RATE | AUD PRICE | TOTAL | | | |
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| 32 | 60 | 132000 | 30% | 39600 | $ 70.00 | 0.72 | $ 97.22 | 3,850,000.00 | forecast april to june at 20T per month |
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| 33 | | | | | | | | 44,528,210.68 | APPROX AUD REVENUE ARPIL to JUNE |
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| 34 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 35 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 36 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 37 | | | | | | | | 6,791,991.34 | add approx opening cash beginning of QTR |
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| 38 | | | | | | | | 51,320,202.02 | total cash eng june BEFORE expenses | |
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| 39 | | | | | | | | -51,000,000.00 | Estimated costs equal to prior QTR | |
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| 40 | | | | | | | | 320,202.02 | estimate cash generated end june at top guidance |
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