Hi I have updated the forecast to end of june. The announcement...

Hi

I have updated the forecast to end of june.

The announcement is very clear, revenue from these shipments, subject to final assays is expected to be approx. 26 M. They would have received approx. 24.7M aud and the amount withheld of approx. 1.3 M aud will be paid subject to final adjustments as a result of testing.

Note there has been a constant difference to the amount of DMT announced as shipped and then later confirmed. notwithstanding histocisals I have assumed no net loss or gain and that 26M will come in.

the following forecast which looks to calculate the cash generated by the end of june 2019 is based on the following assumptions.

82928 DMT of spod is shipped in the half, which is over the top end of production guidance which has been confirmed again today. It assumes all that is ready is in fact shipped

As a result of the above 40000 tons is forecast for april to june QTR spod sales
Average exchange rate of 72 is used for the entire half

The average sale price of spod used going forward is 732 USD/ ton 6% which is the average of the old price 880usd per ton FOB and the new approximate price paid (assuming FOB) which is calculated from the announcement information.
TA price of 70 usd/pound is used
TA of 20 T at 30% sold each month, so model includes 120T of TA at 30% at 70 usd per ton at 72 cents USD:AUD is sold this half.
OUTGOINGS - forecast of 51M aud as per most resent Qtrly cashflow used for this QTR
Outgoings - April to June forecast at 51 M being the same as company forecast this qtr

This forecast indicates the total cash generated after this above guidance production and sale of approx. 320K - breakeven lets say

if the outgoings are significantly less next QTR, say 35M, the cash generated would be approx. $16Maud for six months, or running at approx.$32MPA at above nameplate production

look forward to your comment.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11
0					rate used	0.72	JAN to MARCH
1
2	SPOD			ACTUAL shipments announced	PRICE USD FOB	FX RATE	AUD PRICE	TOTAL AUD
3				18000	$ 880.00	0.72	$ 1,222.22	22,000,000.00
4				4928	$ 584.42	0.72	$ 811.69	4,000,000.00
5			TOTAL SOLD	22928				26,000,000.00	APPROX AUD REVENUE
6
7				AVERAGE FOB PRICE BOTH SHIPMENTS 690 USD
8
9				EXPECTED TO BE OR READY TO BE SHIPPED
10				30000	$ 732.21	0.72	$ 1,016.96	30,508,658.01
11					price average of old and new
12					assume FOB
13	TA	CONVERT
14	TONS TOTAL	POUNDS	concerntrate	PRODUCT CONTAINED POUNDS	PRICE USD	FX RATE	AUD PRICE	TOTAL
15	20	44000	30%	13200	$ 70.00	0.72	$ 97.22	1,283,333.33	confirmed ammouncment sold
16	20	44000	30%	13200	$ 70.00	0.72	$ 97.22	1,283,333.33	confirmed announcement pending sale
17	20	44000	30%	13200	$ 70.00	0.72	$ 97.22	1,283,333.33	forecast to sell march assumed
18
19							Assuming all availaible IS SOLD	57,791,991.34	Approx revenue end of MARCH QTR
20							EXPECTED OUTFLOWS	-51,000,000.00	Ass announcmed in QTRly cashflow report
21							BAL	6,791,991.34	Approx Cash generated end of qtr
22
23	Guidance remains unchanged 65000 or 80000			NEXT QTR April to JUNE
24
25					rate used	0.72
26
27				forecast april to june produced and Sold SPOD	PRICE USD FOB	FX RATE	AUD PRICE	TOTAL AUD
28			top guidance	40000	$ 732.21	0.72	$ 1,016.96	40,678,210.68
29	TA	CONVERT
30	TONS TOTAL	POUNDS	concerntrate	PRODUCT CONTAINED POUNDS	PRICE USD	FX RATE	AUD PRICE	TOTAL
31	60	132000	30%	39600	$ 70.00	0.72	$ 97.22	3,850,000.00	forecast april to june at 20T per month
32								44,528,210.68	APPROX AUD REVENUE ARPIL to JUNE
33
34
35
36								6,791,991.34	add approx opening cash beginning of QTR
37								51,320,202.02	total cash eng june BEFORE expenses
38								-51,000,000.00	Estimated costs equal to prior QTR
39								320,202.02	estimate cash generated end june at top guidance