In my experience with other small caps in unloved sectors (like coal) - SP moves only on confirmation and not on future earnings estimates... B2Y on my calcs will be borderline break even next quarter, a SP of well above 29c is not really supported based on the information we have...
1Mtpa = 250kt ROM per quarter
= 207.5kT product (83% yield)
= 172.3kT Coking product (83%/17% split) x $209.55/t = $36.1M AUD revenue
= 32.3kT Thermal product (83%/17% split) x $125/t = $4.04M AUD revenue
From the 5B outflows for the next quarter are estimated to be $40.1M, comprising mostly production costs of $29.6M (FOB of $145/t * 207.5kT)... Therefore neutral cashflow next quarter - 36.1 + 4.04 - 40.1 = ~$0
In fact until they get the next development unit in Q4FY19 (next year) they are going to be borderline... So I cannot see SP going anywhere in the near future unless there is a catalyst like cook north OC, toll washing, coal price rise or USD/AUD swinging further in our favour...
Stay afloat until they hit 2.2Mt annualised rates and on today's information = ~$48M quarterly EBITDA - this would support a much higher SP! But like I said previously in my experience this will not eventuate until its proven...
I re-read this, just to be clear, this isn't negative, just facts - I hold B2Y (token amount) and on confirmation of various milestone I do plan to increase my holding as it derisks...
