MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

I was expecting a production around 29.000 OZ. So the actual...

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  1. 92 Posts.
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    I was expecting a production around 29.000 OZ. So the actual production was disappointing for me. So I was looking for the explanation for this in the report. I would be very disappointed if there was not a good reason for this. After reading the report I felt better. The management does understand the sensibility of production figures in the " investment period". They explained that they simply do not have enough capacity at this moment to transport all the equipment needed for the infrastructure projects and all the tonnes with ore. In my opinion this is the only reason I would buy for a somewhat disappointing production. They also said that after the bubble in investments the all-in-costs will decrease to a competetive level. I have also learned from the report that we should take the quidence of the management very seriously. They predicted 95.000 to 100.000 and the final production was some more than 98.000 OZ. So for the FY 15/16 I am counting on 125.000 OZ. So on average 31.250 per quarter. Still a very nice increase.

    So what can you conclude from the report?: we have a serious management on board now who is ticking all the boxes. The investment bubble is something we can expect to go on for some two more years and during this period there will be no room for a dividend. The management will manage the level of cash in the next to years very carefully but they are no magicians. The improvements in the mine will use cash. I think it will be a very good job if management is able to still have a positive cash position during the next to years combined with almost no debts on their balance sheet. I an earlier note I wrote down a sentence which we use a lot in the Netherlands namely: " de kost gaat voor de baet uit" which means so much as: first the investment costs and then the benefit of it". After the investment bubble, so the management promises, we will see a higher production with lower costs and more profit and higher cash levels. It is true to say that it will take some time though. On the other hand I have always asked myself the question: "what is in the price of the stock". Hovering around 60c. I would say MML is worth waiting for. A lot, if not all, is discounted for in the SP. Perhaps there are better propositions in the market, but perhaps there are not. I prefer a miner with a good management who is expanding the production and still have no debt in the company. The only wild goose is the POG. But this is true for every miner, especially the ones with a high debt-burden. To predict the POG for the coming months is something I do not have the skills for. For the longer term you can rely on economic fundamentals being: a rock solid asset for every portfolio who wants to be diversified and with a 5000 year track record. The price of 1 OZ is in USD. Is that not a currency who gets new brothers and sisters every day through fresh printed new USD-dollars? Hmm.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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