Great posts Esh. I pretty much agree with all you say. I can...

Great posts Esh. I pretty much agree with all you say. I can only imagine how much money some of the prices of Saud have made on being on the inside, but... they are playing a very dangerous game (but I would need my kids to sleep all night to post about it). I think right now, the Sauds are just wanting to see oil stabilize. Sure lots of great trading opportunities, but they must surely know that many of the shalers can and have kept on eking out a survival strategy because many expect the price to bounce hard.

As I said, its all talk and until late 2016 which, I assume will surely see the death of many U.S oilers, only then will the Sauds start to play ball, assuming that this is their main goal, nothing would surprise me, i.e. They would happily destroy the world economy if Iran went under....

Anyway, as to SXY DLS/BPT, its a line ball call. SXY do have the cash, but much of it will be spent in 2016/2017 simply getting gas supply ready, not into production. In that time, the POO could have jumped and DLS/BPT will have jumped much harder because they are able to keep production steady (and gas maybe even increase it), whilst SXY will soon be producing less than 1mmbo, because in the end, they simply cannot find any oil deposits of significance.

However, I do hold a smallish amount of SXY because if, as you have allued to, with AGL and CSG shutting down, the big end of town may well just buy up SXY to fill any supply gaps. I actually really like CVN, BRU , FAR and AWE. All different but, have little downside considering their assets etc. Too many good companies and not enough capital to invest! ha.

All IMHO of course.

p.s. Your point about the U.S dollar carry trade unraveling is so on the money. Gold, Oil and some little tech stocks, that's it for me these days, I hope they will be able to largely ignore whatever Black swan events we see in 2016.