Cashew - I see what you are saying.Only $4m of loan left (they...

Cashew - I see what you are saying.

Only $4m of loan left (they went through it pretty quick).

Maybe only 60,000 * 70 = $5m receipts (shipment 2).

Medium result = $10m for shipment 2 + 3

Best result = $10m for shipment 2 + 3 + shipment 4 ($7m)

So for 17.5m outflow

Worst case = $8m cash shortfall for 1/4
Medium Case = $3.5m cash shortfall for 1/4
Best Case = $3.5 cash in bank (but still owe loan)

For best case they need to send shipment 3 before the end of February - and then Shipment 4 (at market price) before the end of March.

If they can't achieve the Best Case it is a CR. - which now seems likely unless I am missing something.

I suspect that is why people are selling as they might sniff a CR at 10c.