I typically keep a close eye on my portfolio but I'm actually in agreement with a few posters here saying this has become a "bottom drawer" stock for the first half of this year.
We know there is approximately $25m cash about to arrive in our account any day now, along with $13m cash from end of year (likely used up in Jan 19), and a $20m available debt facility. That's leaves us with about $40m-$45m as of today, plus a 9000t stockpile (~$7m-$8m), plus some unsold tantalum.
The above suggests that we have enough cash available to push through all of Feb 19 without any significant changes, at which point we have likely increased the stockpile well past 20,000t (~$19-$20m), ready for a new shipment.
If we can secure the 2nd offtaker with a prepayment, perhaps that would delay any CR. But given Tribeca require us to hold $5m cash, I'm still expecting a small CR ($10m-$15m) to boost the balance sheet.
There are also external factors that have been mentioned: - Potential takeover or merger (Oh god!). This is not far fetched given GXY have no debt, A$56m (cash & liquid assets), plus about to receive A$372m from a recent sale. Bald Hill ships out of the same port as GXY and our product is apparently superior quality (blending was previously mentioned as a possibility). Also, given that we should start hitting our straps by Sep qtr (if everything goes well), I would not rule out an offer from another cashed up Aussie lithium miner. - Recovery or stabilization within the Lithium sector. Given how difficult it appears for countless companies to ramp up production (not just Lithium miners) and the liklihood that the lower prices will create a drag on potential Lithium producers entering the market (CXO, LTR...etc...), perhaps we will see some improvement in spodumene prices. Somebody also mentioned Lithium listing on the LME. - $US dollar continuing to fall (i.e. 60-65c) would improve our bottom line (US$680/t base case @ 73c = A$931 would become A$1133 @ 60c). That's very nice.
Whilst I'm very disappointed in the share price performance since the merger was completed (we are down almost 50% from 28.5c), it seems to me that we are on the verge of being a small loss (or break-even) producer in the next 6 months in the current situation, with internal (2nd offtaker, CR, fines, reduced costs) and external (takeover, sector sentiment, US dollar) factors that could drive a return above 20c/share within the same time frame.
