Hi Alex,I should clarify, I have a negative short term view (12...

Hi Alex,

I should clarify, I have a negative short term view (12 Months) on certain commodities such as iron ore and oil. I remain bullish on other commodities such as copper, nickel, coal (only metallurgical), lng and potash.

Im a simple person, I don’t use options or creative ETF’s to manage risk. My portfolio is simply either underweight or overweight sectors during the year. At present I’m overweight banking (simply for yield) and iron ore companies. The iron ore trades have become highly profitable due to the unfortunate disaster in Brazil. Although most will say this is luck, my personal view is that by always being invested (even if it’s in sectors which are unfavourable) you can capitalise on unforeseen events.

Over the next few weeks (with bhp and rio) both expecting to report strong earnings I will be revieweing their reports very closely. If buybacks continue to be a strong focus I will remain in the trade (as jan and feb iron ore prices will be highly profitable for these companies and won’t be represented in the results yet). Alternately, I will trim my holdings at around $39 (bhp) and $98 (Rio) and take the underweight position across bulk commodities.

Many in this forum will be traders, but I doubt I will sell MGX below $1. Post $1 we need to understand what management will be doing with the cash at bank to understand what the future looks like.