Nobody should seriously feel bad about not picking the bottom of a downtrend. By definition only a few trades can make that claim. If TA was a science not an art form everyone would wait for a bottom signal (long tern strong support price, long basing pattern, double bottom, inverted head and shoulders etc) and get set. Of course, nobody would then sell into an obvious bottom, there would be a buyer strike above the 'bottom'. Nobody knows whee the bottom is and it is only after the fact when many trades have been made between those who see compelling value match those that want/need to get out or who's purposes it is to sell down the share price for future gain that anyone knows.
IMHO there looks to be one or a number of large sellers feeding into this latest downtrend post the last capital raise. I would guess that the violence in Burkina Faso has turned them off and triggered a decision to move on to less risky investments elsewhere. Who and how much shares they have to sell is a question only the company can answer (maybe I will give them a call). The company gets an updated share registry daily, T+3 days so delayed but I assure you most companies follow closely who is getting in and out of their stock. Until this/these holders (could be long term from sub-20 days or could be sophisticates who from last 25c raise who thought there was an quick easy 10-20% profit to make in the post discount raise bounce) are finished selling down the downward pressure will likely continue.
As stated, I do not tend to wait for absolute bottom forming TA confirmation for fear of missing out on the bounce or buying a false bounce. TA theory is against me as the "don't catch a falling knife" saying goes. Maybe it is better to pay more than the bottom on the rise post sell off than to buy too early in the push down but it also depends on your personality, trading philosophy etc. I could also quote experienced and successful investors like Rick Rule who says he always buys hoping the price does down and he paid too much so he can buy more lol. Buffet etc, there is no shortage of clever people who buy into fear and a falling share price rather than wait for the all-clear rising trend, often at much higher prices, to get in.
To reiterate my WAF investment philosophy:
I believe WAF will be taken over and somewhere around 40c and that could happen anytime from now. I think M&A for miners is just heating up.
I believe the sovereign risk discount has become too high, mine execution risk is quite low and regardless of M&A the shares are quite fundamentally undervalued
I am happy to buy more cheaper because my entry is well sub the hopefully last 25c raise and I am not yet sensibly 'full'
WAF represents a small enough percentage of a large portfolio to hold for a two year time frame if required (though large enough $ to be very meaningful)
Ultimately I would like to make profits earlier and often trade out portions of position into price rises rather than wait for the end-game exit.
The company has done nothing wrong as at this early stage nothing is going wrong. There is nothing they can do is some holders have become uncomfortable and want out, or some players are pushing the price down for purposes of a cheap takeover offer. WAF value proposition has not changed significantly and not enough to justify sell down (other investors obviously think differently)
The last drill hole into M1Sth hit 25m @ 15g/t 220m below the bottom of existing resource. There is no need to keep drilling like a maniac to prove this high grade shoot probably goes to the bowels of the earth, it is already a very high probability. Value should be attributed to it.
If nothing material changes to the investment equation then I have learnt to sit tight and accept that the market will go up and down, sometimes in my favour and sometimes against.
The trick is not to buy too high into enthusiasm and leave yourself a long fall down is what I have learned personally. Being under water and watching the price march inexorably down is not fun no matter one's experience or philosophy, and from some perspective is proof of buying too high. If being under water causes too much stress then you have punted too much to be comfortable and should lighten up. It is the psychology of trading and investing that is as important as what, when and how much one buys.I don;t mean to be patronising, hopefully most understand and are not stressed to much by the share price action in the face of no fundamental change in the company's prospects, perhaps some have not. I remain very happy to be invested in WAF at these prices but of course look forward to the day, soon hopefully, when the sellers have sold out and the price trend moves back up and the red changes on my spreadsheet. I look forward even more to that takeover offer out of the blue and a large profit.
Good luck
WAF Price at posting:
21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
