WAF (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities Report

Originally posted by eshmun ↑

Insight!!

Good lick with that.

If you want a higher share price in a TO the only way to get it is to economically improve the life of mine (and production profile of the LOM plan) and the only way to get that is to continue drilling the M1 resource or discover more near surface resources.

Incremental progress in building the mine is just thwart with all the inherent risks (ie what can go wrong will go wrong) particularly with an owner build model and is a downside risk to the share price (and value gap proposition) IMO until free cash flows are proven and at hand. That's just the way the market works when sentiment is low. The gold price should work for WAF like any other gold stock, that is just investment 101. When commodity prices rise strongly so do share prices of the companies that explore, discover, develop and supply those commodities. We've recently seen that an approximate US$50/oz gold price rise did nothing to advance the WAF share price or arrest its share price decline, which is unusual since the gold price has worked its way back to close to the feasibilty level that last saw the share price rally to the high 30 cent level when the FS was announced na k in June. The "dark forces" didn't take long to get that rally under control and reassert the downtrend. We have to wait for a stronger rally in the gold price to see if this stock can ever start behaving normally.

We should have been spending our money on fortifying the back end of the mine plan with $35 million in the bank before embarking on the dilutive raising IMO. I'd say local political pressures probably contributed to needing to go to the funding market early. The sovereign risk card could already be responsible for part of the value destruction and the predicament the company finds itself in, caught in an undertow between forces bent on getting the price as low as they can for a TO and the local political pressures that dictate the project proceed at pace, whatever the cost.

Looks like the manipulators are already lining up at 20 cents setting the anchor once again. The next leg down can't come soon enough for them and our only way out is to find a way to unleash the anchor chain (here is hoping).

Our only defence is to drill and drill hard and fast. You've only got to look at the recent RMS takeover of EXU to see how you don't want to be caught with your pants down drilling when the attack comes. The problems with the Mace sampling methodology sunk EXU's chances as there is no way of practically defending value once an offer comes. You basically just stop the value "clock" more or less at the point the offer is made.

I am really beginning to wonder where this managment's head is at. All this effort to have the share price dragged to the bottom of the ocean, value stripped out from under shareholders and then little evidence of defence strategy.

Ironically our best chance might be if the project isn't as good as we all think and there is no interest in it (very unlikely IMO) and we can get through to the production stage. In this situation we just have to hope managment know what they are doing with this build. If it plays out this way and we come out the other side with a viable and profitable mine, even if it's not as cheap to run as they make out, I'll owe this management an apology. But I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen. Esh

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I use the word ‘insight’ deliberately, because this guy isn’t basing his argument on operational specifics, he’s simply offering perspectives based on his personal experience in the industry. Some interesting stuff, but mostly comforting platitudes and stoicisms.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	72212	$1.49

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72212

$1.49

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$1.51	72760	6

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$1.51

72760

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	3670	1.360
1	4785	1.355
4	42574	1.350
2	26140	1.345
1	4986	1.340

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Price($)

3670

1.360

4785

1.355

42574

1.350

26140

1.345

4986

1.340

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.370	46444	4
1.375	84504	4
1.380	66843	2
1.385	20785	3
1.390	109785	4

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.370

46444

1.375

84504

1.380

66843

1.385

20785

1.390

109785

(20min delay)
Last $1.50		Change 0.005(0.33%)		Mkt cap ! $1.866B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.54	$1.54	$1.45	$13.66M	9.140M

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