DRM 1.80% 54.5¢ doray minerals limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-26

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  1. 23,765 Posts.
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    Yes going to get interesting , three scenarios I see over Andy Well (AW) are
    1) status quo with plant and mine staying mothballed .
    2) After obtaining finance in the short term or once there is sufficient funds from cash-flow reopen AW with extending the decline down to 100 meters below the ore body
    3) Break up the assets at AW , with the plant re-sited at to for example the Rothsay gold project (RGP) with a 10 EGA for 8 DRM script offer to EGA shareholders , and then eventually sell off Andy Well in-situ resource.

    Both options 2 and 3 seem more viable now as the company is proving to be a low cost operator .
    Option 2
    I feel the MD LJ has shown he has more ability in lowering AISC by future proofing production at Deflector , than the previous MD at AW given this last quarter looks like before taking into account the placement cash injection, Deflector had a positive cash-flow of between $7 to 8 M, with development still pushing ahead of stopped panels and step out drilling still taking place . which makes opening AW seem more viable if there is sufficient OVM after development costs .
    Option 3
    LJ's talent could be just as applicable in lowering AISC if he were to be running RGP or a similar project and unlike with AW which in the short term would not need to be financed and/or having a placement, the likes of RGP could be done with a script offer if the right negotiating team of board members were involved .

    Further into the future :
    The Net debt is near zero , it would be good to borrow money if the return and risk on a future project was worthwhile from a WACC view point.
    If by combining leveraged equity with a project having a greater than a 1.5 ratio of NPV to Enterprise value (assuming low intrinsic risk after sufficient due diligence ) then a strong business case could be made for buying into that project .
    That strong business case is further enhanced as spreading admin costs and talent over more than one mine should result in admin costs per oz becoming lower so there is a possibility for a 3 mine scenario further down the track - maybe MGV with a tolling agreement with West Gold ?
    My over riding reservation though is while I am confident in LJs ability at running Deflector I am not confident in the Board's recent individual historic ability at negotiating deals with other companies although welcome to be proven wrong for the future .
    LJ has enough on his hands with organic expansion rather than M&A so at this stage so I see Option 1 of mothballing AW and concentrating on Deflector, and exploring tenaments close by as still the best option .

    The above is not investment advice , I have no hard rock mining experience and I welcome to be contradicted
 
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