I think there there is a lot more in there than I initially thought......
Remember words of our leader:
"
The OHD project is a major value driver for all shareholders ............"
Well the "Completion of First Drill Hole" announcement certainly did detract from the hollowness of the "Quarterly Activities Report'
Turesi, Robello Creek, Banakaru all self explanatory - drills are churning at Turesi
Kopang:
Still no sign off on the KRI PGGS application! For a country that was keen for this transaction to be completed, keen to bring investment into the country and with GSM's history in Guyana they are dragging their feet.
Although this may suit GPP at this present time as there is no time limits to progress Kopang until it is signed off and we are concentrating on Turesi (sarcasm) because the "Pilgangaroo Scale" Lithium deposit is more than enough for GPP to handle (as it is shown in the other projects that are stalling) but we do have a history of "chasing" the next big thing in case of failure.
OHD:
So for all the indications via announcements (and there has been a plethora of fluffy ones), all the funds spent on consultants, the “experts” we engaged, all the feedback from posters that have had contact with the company and grower groups, and from all the posters that think all things are rosy in GPP land - the OHD project has hit a road block!!!!
The road block is multifaceted:
Funding being a large factor
a) 2 Failed grants! GPP's confidence in their ability to procure funding via governments schemes by demonstrating they have a viable and ongoing business that will benefit the sustainability of world food supplies, provide long term employment in the hard hit Latrobe Valley region and benefit growers with an innovative and disruptive technology producing crops with higher yields obviously isn't shared by the government bodies that administer the grants, one does have to wonder why....
b) GPP knew that funding was a concern (I mean if I and many others could) then it begs the question: if the recent placement was so over subscribed why didn't they increase the amount of shares to satisfy the purported over subscription to relieve the cash crisis for OHD?
My take only on this is, only Turesi was sold to sophisticated investors, and they were again overly confident of securing government handouts
c) What happened to all the interested parties (allegedly) that we had, fluffy announcements indicating international and local interest have obviously drawn blanks.
d) I wasn't at all surprised with the rejection of the RJIP grant, GPP wouldn't have been able to meet some of the key criteria points and the main one being providing jobs, as the grant application was for feasibility funding.
e) GPP “understands there is a view from some market observers to initially move to field trials as opposed to plot and glasshouse trials pundits need to understand that it is
cost prohibitive!!” This goes back to point b, the tomato/wheat fields trials are/were never going to progress unless GPP had windfall (grant) or found funding from somewhere.
f) Where to for OHD if funding this time around is also rejected?
The process – I’m not doubting the controlled studies done by Monash produced the yield increase reported but
a) The resubmission of the CRC-P grant, does the consideration of scaling down the field trials to validate the process (from previous quarterly outcomes) infer there is problems with the process?
b) The PDU #1 has design limitations and is reportedly not operational for considerable lengths of time
c) The PDU #1 is not dedicated to GPP tasks
The fluff, bubbles, promises and Big Statements
a) “Given the inbound interest in potential off-take and partnering the company has sort to promptly undertake OHD trials on Canola and Palm Oil plants.” -
Well that didn’t happen!!!
b) “The company is currently in discussions with international firms and national grower groups regarding off-take and partnering opportunities.” –
Yep their banging down the doors, eh!
c) “The company in conjuncture with Monash is planning further trials to cover oil cereals with a focus on Canola and at the request of international parties Palm Oil.” –
Plans shredded!!!
d) March 2017 GPP engaged Metrix Consulting to carry out an assessment of the possible market in Australia (
Marketing Study) for plant growth bio-stimulants (including all possible plants grown for commercial purposes) The
Marketing Study will enable GPP to complete its Commercial Plan, the
assessment was nearing completion and the final report is anticipated before the end of the current quarter (26
th Oct) …
Gone MIA
e) Shucks, from the same announcement (26th Oct) studies on the logistics of product transport, siting of the main plant, manning and all economic aspects of the intended business need to be completed before the Commercial Plan can be finalised.
Mr Trench where are you?? The Commercial Plan when it finally arrives will have to be such compelling reading we won't be able to put it down!!!
f) The PFS/Commercial Plan is like the little Red Engine, I think I can, I think I can with it nearing completion spouted to be before the end of the year (2016)
end of June 17 quarter / nearing completion (22
nd June 17) / then it changed to being reliant on the Market Scope (30
th June 17)
it is now April 2018, and going on managements claim (26th Oct announcement) “Updates on all the steps described in this update will be issued as they occur” its obvious we are still a long way off the Commercial Plan being completed on the theory that there has been no “marketing study” “infrastructure” “transport, plant site, manning or economic” updates released.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171026/pdf/43nldbdnpt9pjk.pdf
g) Not forgetting all the announcements around proposed trials, tomato, wheat (field) or canola, chick peas, eggplant, strawberries, mushrooms, capsicum, roses, edible flowers (an emerging market) chrysanthemums (grown in hydroponic or glass house conditions) and some stone and nut tree trials (if we have OHD liquid)
Even as late as Dec 18 the tomato field trials were due to commence in Echuca (GPP idea of due!) Contact was made between @Zammita and the APTRC who could only suggest he thinks the trials had started – obviously they haven’t?
Management
So the consensus from certain posters that management are doing a good job, listening to shareholders and keeping us informed!!
a) Why did they not announce the unsuccessful RJIP grant when they became aware of the result? Continuous disclosure listing rule – Fail. (IMO they probably only made the announcement as they were prodded by the ASX)
b) Why had they not informed the market that the tomato/wheat broad acre field trials were not going ahead? – but chose to bury it in the quarterly? - Fail.
c) Why, when the company replied to an ASX aware letter re: late notification of Grant Rejection did they boldly suggest “the rejection of the grant is likely to have virtually no effect either from the perspective of its ongoing plans or its financial position”! – Fail.
(i) Fail so much as the ongoing plans haven’t altered but the achievable goals of that plan will be pushed out past 2019.
(ii) Fail so much as their plans have now been altered because of the failed grant there is no PDU#2 built in the first half of 2018 (fluff announcement)
(iii) Fail because as management put it “transport of VBC to the USA and return of OHD liquor is inefficient” but “hello” lets go back to being inefficient as we are now working with Thermaquatica to acquire the required quantity of OHD liquid.
(iv) Fail so much as they will adjust its schedule and field trial programs to align with outcomes from funding applications
d) The way management are handling the OHD project, we will need a licence renewal before a drop of Bio-Stimulant Oil is produced or growing bodies will lose any interest because of the inability to provide the oil!!
Point in fact, from the 26th Oct announcement we had signed up a significant (GPP’s definition of significant could mean 3) numbers of farmers to undertake field trials in 2018 which may not happen this year.
e) I like this bit though, its cute:
GPP and its consultants had meetings with government groups again seeking support for grant funding, and to update on activities including compiling business cases for the Latrobe Valley OHD Bio _ Stimulant and a possible Collie OHD Platform Chemicals Project – we failed to get a grant based on just the Latrobe region (funding sought for PDU build and trials) so we are clutching at straws by adding in the Collie Coal idea/project maybe they should try “fluttering their eyes”.
f) Releasing a flurry of announcements (20th) doesn’t constitute they are keeping us informed the bulk of them were listing rule requirements!!
NT Pretoria Project – IMO only, this will be some time before it gets moving, as @Scarpa @Davy Boy have indicated exploration may commence near term but the actual drilling may take some time as crossing all the t’s and dotting all the I’s that involves numerous bodies and groups will be lengthy.
All the above IMO only unless taken from company announcements
Cheers
