AWE is a good recent case study of what I think will eventually...

AWE is a good recent case study of what I think will eventually happen with WAF. For 2 years AWE had been hitting world class gas flow rates and the Waitisia field in WA was touted as the best onshore gas discovery in Australia for a couple of decades. The market didn't really care and the share price languished for most of that time.

In the last 2 months, three bidders have come along and AWE is up ~90% (and the bidding war is not over yet, sadly I exited after the second bid). These bidders all have interests nearby and want the gas badly. They are paying a premium to most broker valuations.

How did the market have the pricing so wrong on AWE? Ultimately the true value of many resource assets (pre-DFS) is only really understood by those in the same industry and that usually means potential acquirers. I think the same will be true of WAF given it has a tier one type asset. The acquirers can play the long game though and may even mess with the share price along the way (no indication this is happening here but volume is certainly very low and not indicative of anyone panicking).

Speaking of which, B2Gold Toega's resource update is due any day now (they had said end of January only 3 weeks ago).