Cheers Nord, I agree with you about value emerging, but.... at...

Cheers Nord, I agree with you about value emerging, but.... at what price is it safe to enter, that is the question that plagues me. The low at the start of the year is a clear target, at $1.40, although from todays fall, perhaps it could go a little lower?

I guess when I look at WGX, currently, producing around 260k, with a market cap of $500m, $47m in cash/eq, its probably fair value, but... considering its costs are higher than pretty much every other producer on the ASX with production only in Australia at a production rate above 150k, well.... in some ways its not cheap? PRU is far cheaper (but of course I wont even try going into that stock), yet RSG is possibly not cheap compared to WGX? sigh. I keep going round in circles.

In perhaps 18 months, WGX could be very good value at these prices, but I still think a lot of capex is going to be sunk, even though they have probably spent almost $200m to date? (that is a guess, but.... possibly close).

I think Fortuna won't make any money for another 6 months, at least when I compare it to all the other projects WGX has restarted. I bet there will be more stripping, development etc, plant expansion, they seem to just keep coming up with more ways to spend money (even though I know its for the purpose of future cost reductions).

The MD is an interesting character, with hindsight, considering how big his plans seem to be, they should have raised another $100m earlier in the year. They just don't seem to be able to consolidate their production/cash flow to ensure no more shares are being printed (to date, I feel like the board are pretty blazie about dilution, as 'growth' is all that matters).

That all being said, I think I will put in a buy at $1.40 for a small parcel in my super. As at that price, I am getting a 250-300k producer with an E/V of around $405m.

Would appreciate hearing further thoughts on WGX from you Nord, targets? etc