The problem has never been with what MML has "said" they'll do,...

The problem has never been with what MML has "said" they'll do, it's always been with what they've actually "done"...

I agree that producing 28k oz in Q4 would be great to see, and whilst I hate to be a pessimist, it's hard to ignore that they pretty much always under perform their guidance and the last time they did 28k+ in a quarter was all the way back in 2015 when they were high grading at 6.8g/t with no major mine issues...

At the moment MML seems more like a leaky bucket and every time you put a finger in a hole another hole starts leaking (along with shareholder capital); ie delays with the service shaft (meaning continued bottle necking and high AISCs), L8 maintenance issues, grade issues, unplanned tailing dam capex, regulatory issues...

Quite fatiguing.

So I personally don't put too much weight on what management says anymore - the numbers say more...

And I think 28k is unlikely whilst hoisting constrained (but it is possible).

If they pull it off I expect AISC back in the $1000 to $1100 range which will get them just under the high end of cost guidance and more importantly at these gold prices should see them put a healthy amount of cash back into the bank (or pay down their new debts) and I suspect that would be enough for the market to begin believing they'll complete the service shaft (improve cashflow and lower costs) without a capital raise...

Of course that's IF they hit guidance and IF the gold price holds...

Another quarter of severe cash burn at this point will have the market asking questions about where the capital is coming from to get to the "promised" greener pastures...

I suspect it would negative very quickly without another bad quarter coupled with an announcement that the service shaft won't be completed in July or the gold price drops...

So I think MML need the gold price to remain north of $1200 and its production north of 25k for the next two quarters or the market is going to absolutely hammer it.

Monday should be interesting - we'll get to see how confident the market is that MML can deliver over the next 3 months...

I'm not expecting it to be happy about this report.