My key observations: - 13,266 wmt produced in first 29 days of January or 457tpd. Deducting the last update of 410tpd for first 13 days of January (5,330 wmt) suggests that 7,936 wmt was produced in the last 16 days at 496tpd. - March quarter production guidance maintained at 65,000wmt - 80,000wmt. Note the current January rate (457tpd) would produce 41,170wmt in 3 months). - A stockpile of 32,000wmt at 29 January suggests no loading to date but it would appear imminent with confirmation of 23,000wmt to be shipped early Feb 19 (with Port of Esperance showing 18,230t KOHINOOR and 5,000t AAL NINJING being loaded at Berth 2 in the coming days). However, this information appears inconsistent with the expected 18,000 Jan 19 and 10,000 Feb 19 figures provided in the last update. We are also left to assume that the first 18,000t is at US$880/dmt 6% and the remaining 5,000t at the new offtake rate (US$680t - US$1080t). - Production costs of $1152/t x 22,724t = $26.178m. - With cash at $13.04m, a $20m drawdown available (->$33.04m), plus Feb 19 shipment {[18000 x $880 / 0.73 x 0.95 = $20.6m] + [5000 x $740 *assumed / 0.73 x 0.95 = $4.8m] = $25.4m} (-> $58.44m), it looks like we may just cover the expected outflow of $51.1m. However, given that the 23,000t Feb 19 shipment will still leave approximately 9,000t in the stockpile, plus another 24,000t (at 400tpd *assumed) being produced in Feb & Mar, we definitely need to ship more product. - Tantalum shipments are reported inconsistently as "parcels containing 51,000lb shipped during quarter" (~23t) versus "A total of 40dmt (~88,000lb) of high grade tantalum concentrate grading in excess of 30% contained tantalum pentoxide shipped during the quarter". Does anyone know how tantalum revenue is represented in the cash flow statement? Does it reduce the production costs?
A40 Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held