88E (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities Report &amp; Appendix 5B

Originally posted by Lazarus65: ↑

Not sure pointless is fair. They are required, by the ASX, to release a quarterly activities report and cash flow report. If they failed to do this, there would likely be suspensions on ASX and even more likely associated FUD machinations on what could be an unsuspended AIM.

Quite aside from the mandatory nature of the reporting, I did take some new insights from the report. They may not be new to the market, but they were new to me. Or at least my interpretation was new to me. Key points for me (some new and some confirmations of known news):

While IW conventional farmout discussions are ongoing and potential partners interest and calibre "remained highly encouraging", it dawned on me that the feedback they are getting may be that interest is 'limited' to the Schrader/Topset leads and prospects - as the reservoir quality of the deeper Seabee and Torok formations are "deemed a key risk factor"... "due to depth of burial and compaction". While that is still 763m barrels (net mean unrisked to 88e), it is a far cry short of the 2,211m bbls (net mean unrisked to 88e) of the entire Western Play. This may explain the time it is taking...and is certainly conditioning my expectations as the extent of FO that may be initially delivered for IW conventional. A tempering point for me.
Reports of the demise of the HRZ shale play (IW unconventional), are plausibly premature. Indeed they may be as erroneous as many have argued, despite market sentiment. Independent validation of the work done so far, in conjunction with collaboration with USGS and newer tests that are now emerging, suggest that we may see a credible plan for a horizontal test flow test in the HRZ to "unlock its considerable value for shareholders". Analysis complete 1H 2019. An encouraging point for me.
Yukon Gold is really all just about Cascade, and breakeven development price here (due to PT assets nearby) is under $US40/bbl.This sounds high to me as the difference between revenue (POO) and this development breakeven number would need to fund, royalties, opex, transport costs and profit margin...of which only the latter drives any value to this prospect. ANS West Coast on 23/1/19 was $61.12/bbl. Royalties at that price is around $10, and we know from earlier work done by 88e that transport costs are in the order of $6.50 / bbl. Which leaves about $4.50 / bbl for opex and profit margin. We clearly need a much higher POO for Yukon Gold to unlock its value. A sobering point for me.
Winx-1 remains on target and we all know its potential.....nothing new here today. This is rightly where all the near term interest lies.

A lot of IMO applies to the above, obviously....but the quarterly has helped me calibrate where I believe we are and my associated expectations. I suspect that the current price fairly reflects the risks and uncertainties, as they have been portrayed and implied. The SOI is also a factor in that.

GLTA.

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Welcome back Laz!!!
Was wondering you were still consoling after IOR debacle

I too starting to have some doubts about level of scope for Farm Out,
I anticipate there will be a small increase in sp once well drilling commences, bit not a FOMO scenario
But hopefully Winx, can bring a smile to long suffering investors
I grab some RMP few months back this one at moment is bringing a smile, not much else in portfolio is

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