Hi Matt, Good post. But you'll find most long-termers are fully...

Hi Matt,
Good post. But you'll find most long-termers are fully aware of all these risks. My post is not directed at people who want to discuss these risks. Rather those who keep saying the same things over and over again - always with a negative slant - as though the rest of us are unaware of the bleeding obvious. You either can bare the risk and or your can't . If you think the risks are too high, feel free to say so, but don't say the same of crap over and over again... or else people will start to question your intentions. (not speaking specifically to you, here, Matt).

The question of what constitutes a 'commercial' gas flows was discussed at length in old posts (to which PSI contributed quite extensively) and old company reports about various EUR curves. Although it should be noted the company reports don't specify a specific 'commercial flow' rate (only a peak flow rate after a year or two). This is inevitable given we are concerned about flow rates over time and ultimate recovery, and because production curves are impossible to predict with any accuracy in a 'frontier' project like Jaws
See this presentation for some guidance.
http://www.strikeenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/20170601_Strategy-Update-Presentation.pdf

The consensus on this board a year ago was the well would need to flow an average 2 million cubic feet a day for a couple of years to be considered commercial (i.e. a level where profit expectations would be high enough to justify investment in more wells and building the appropriate infrastructure, in particular, the gas processing plant). Whether this is accurate, itself, is difficult to know, given the production curve is uncertain. After all we don't know how long it will take to reach 2 million/day levels (if at all).
The company in recent announcement seems to equate 'proof of concept' with booking a 2P reserve, which, from recent discussions, might be feasible around 500 million cubic feet per day (which might not necessarily be enough to warrant investments in gas treatment plants, pipelines, and the like). You might have a point about then more tightly defining 'commerical' gas flows... but I can also see the bind they are in... given reaching a particular flow rate on a particular days might tell us very little about the actual economics. Last thing you want to do is give the market an inaccurate (but simple) yardstick that might be used to beat management (unfairly) over the head with at a later day.

Again, this is just my quick and dirty summary of what I've garnered from these threads (and show of good faith given my impatience with the rabble rousers). Someone else might take the time to give you a more detailed and nuanced summary.
Hope this helps, but much of what you mentioned has been discussed at length previously on this thread. So, rest assured, we are not all ignorant of the basic economics involved. You'll have to make your own assessment of company statements and posters' opinions.
Have to run...