I went and did a bit more digging into the quarterly and checked a couple of things against the feasibility study (which I think the company is 3-6 months behind). Below is my updated production estimate. The grade in the first 3-4 months at Allansons is expected to be close to 10 g/t (!) which should boost the overall mined grade to 5 g/t, and possibly a lot more in June quarter. I think that Keith Goode also mentioned previously that some of the initial average grades at Allansons had conservative top-cuts applied so could surprise on the upside.
I'm a little bit confused on commercial tonnages from the underground because I thought it was 270kt previously but now the quarterly charts show 250kt as the target (average I assume). The production schedule in the DFS also shows peaks above 280kt over the next 12-18 months so maybe there is still further upside.
Open pit mining I have assumed grades in line with the DFS but tonnages to keep being above target.
I have adjusted processing plant throughput than my previous estimate based off last quarter.
DCN Price at posting:
$2.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held