Incredible stuff overnight as gas price tanked a massive 10.&% to hit a 2 year low. Oil down 2.7% at 2 week low. WOR at $10.01. I'm still shorting each new peak.
from Marketwatch this morn:
Oil ends at 2-week low; natural-gas prices sink nearly 11%.
Published: Jan 3, 2017 3:30 p.m. ET
Output cut uncertainty weighs on oil as warm weather outlook hits natgas Getty Images
By MYRAP. SAEFONG
MARKETS/COMMODITIES REPORTER
SARASJOLIN
MARKETS REPORTER
Oil futures made a sharp turn lower Tuesday, giving up their highest levels in about 18 months to mark their lowest settlement in about two weeks , with traders anxious to find out whether OPEC and other major oil producers will stick to their pledge to cut back output.
Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, dropped by nearly 11% on the back of warmer weather forecasts to mark their biggest single-session percentage loss since February 2014.
February West Texas Intermediate crude CLG7, -2.33% fell by $1.39, or 2.6%, to settle at $52.33 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest finish since Dec. 20, according to data from Dow Jones. It had traded as high as $55.24, which would have marked the highest settlement level since July 2015.
March Brent LCOH7, -2.06% on the ICE Futures exchange in London shed $1.35, or 2.4%, to $55.47 a barrel after touching highs above $58.
Prices saw a sharp reversal from an early rally and at least part of the reason for the move was technical, Tyler Richey, co-editor of The 7:00’s Report, told MarketWatch.
“There was a roughly $1 ‘gap’ between Friday’s primary session close and this morning’s 9 a.m. open and fast money traders chased it lower to ‘fill the gap’,” he said.
Strength in the U.S. dollar has also been cited as part of the reason for oil’s losses, he said. A stronger dollar can pressure prices for oil because it is traded in the greenback.
“Recently, oil and the rest of the energy space has largely ignored the relentless uptrend in the dollar which generally pressures the broader commodity space,” said Richey. “But as we are starting a new year it appears that some traders are adjusting their outlooks and are becoming less optimistic about an oil rally in the face of further dollar strength.”
“One thing is for sure — the calendar is creating a lot of volatility today as 2017 gets under way,” he said.
The moves come after a solid 2016, when the U.S. benchmark futures contract saw a nearly 45% calendar-year rise, its biggest annual rise since 2009. The advance was fueled in part by expectations members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers will abide by an agreement to curb output. The output quotas kicked in on Jan. 1 and market observers are now waiting to see if both OPEC and non-OPEC producers will stick to their part of the deal.
Prices had been “supported by early indications of countries following through on OPEC cut commitments, as Oman and Kuwait announced reduction plans,” said Robbie Frasier, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a Tuesday note. But “indications of cheating—a major issue in past deals—would prove to be a significantly bearish factor.”
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, pointed to Bloomberg News report Tuesday showing that Libya, which is a member of OPEC but not included in the cartel’s pledge to cut production, has been ramping up output from its biggest oil field since restarting the field last month.
Elsewhere in the energy spectrum, prices for natural gas took a hit as warmer weather forecasts dulled demand expectations for the heating fuel.
February natural gas NGH17, -9.83% slumped 39.7 cents, 10.7%, to end at a two-week low of $3.327 per million British million thermal units.
“The weather forecasts from [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] were a factor, but ... more cold fronts could move through occasionally, hitting the lower 48 [states] with some decent shots of demand,” said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Seaport Global Securities. “The winter is not over, and late February and March can have a big impact.”
Still, “some of the severity in the trade looked like some traders were closing up some positions and also getting away from higher-priced summer contracts,” he said.
Also on Nymex, February gasoline RBG7, -2.40% fell 4.9 cents, or 2.9%, to $1.622 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG7, -2.67% ended at $1.677 a gallon, down 5.2 cents, or 3%.
WOR Price at posting:
$10.01 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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