RDF’s accounts are certainly not straight forward with all the...

RDF’s accounts are certainly not straight forward with all the disruption of past few years, so I think need you to do some more rigorous analysis before drawing your conclusions.  My post below following last years accounts may give you some insight.

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/35217701/single

RDF’s revenue was around $100M last year for a base loss of around $5M.  The majority of their revenue is reoccurring annuity type revenue on typically 5 year contracts where they’re achieving >90% renewals.  The business is profitable already in the USA, but loss making in ‘International’ where they’ve been investing to grow.  The US fine has been expensed to profit with remaining payments accrued (so will effect cash flow but not profit over next few years).

The $300M pipeline over next 4 quarters does include about 10% renewals and of course this is TCV (spread over say 5 years for annuity and 1-2 for projects) but if they were consistently winning business at this rate their revenue would quickly quadruple!  A larger business should always be more efficient as overheads are spread over greater revenue so net margins would also increase.  So if they did win 100% of this, their profit would be in the tens of millions in a year or two (I’m not suggesting this is possible - just highlighting the difference to your post).

I’m not that bullish of course - but I am betting that their second half will be profitable with an outside chance the full year for FY19 will be in the black.  All IMO and DYOR of course.